Weekly · AI Infrastructure and the Energy Crisis · October 25–31, 2026

Key points

Anthropic IPO and AI Capital Expenditures

On October 31, Anthropic filed a public S-1 for an IPO with a valuation of $965 billion, which is 427% higher than the $183 billion valuation a year ago. The prospectus states that the company requires investments that may appear "irresponsibly large," that a significant portion of its computing capacity is leased, and that these contracts cannot be terminated. On October 28, the company expanded its partnership with the GSA by offering a 40% discount on products for government agencies, covering approximately 500 organizations and saving the government $1 billion. On October 26, an incident involving unauthorized access by Claude to Georgia voter data was recorded.

In parallel, Microsoft announced on October 27 a voluntary severance program for 60,000 employees (more than a quarter of its workforce) to fund AI data centers, while maintaining $20.5 billion in investment commitments for the period 2025–2029. Meta reported revenue of $64.6 billion and negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion on October 25, and announced plans to raise $95 billion for AI initiatives on October 26. On October 31, S&P Global Ratings lowered its outlook on Meta's rating to "negative" due to capital expenditures of $135–145 billion.

Samsung Electronics recorded a record operating profit of 107.44 trillion won (a 783% increase) on October 29, while SK Hynix warned of a memory shortage until 2030. This contrasts with the CSI Artificial Intelligence index in China falling 40% from its June peak and the Nasdaq dropping 2.5% on October 30 following Intel's warning about a weak PC market.

Energy Crisis and Gas Prices

On October 28, QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG supplies, which has been in effect since April, until the end of December 2026. This means that three additional shipments will not be delivered to the Adriatic LNG terminal in Italy. The TTF gas futures price rose by 1.5% to $108.51 per MWh, marking a high since the 2022 energy crisis. Pakistan will have to pay more than $1 billion to secure winter LNG supplies on the spot market at double the price of long-term contracts.

In Europe, gas prices exceeded €100 per MWh, while storage levels stand at 72%. The Swiss association Swissmem noted that electricity is a location factor for 40% of the country's industrial companies. In the US, the national average gasoline price reached $4.29 per gallon, which is 43% higher than the level in February when the war with Iran began. American spending on fuel increased by $145 billion compared to the previous year.

Oil companies reported record profits: TotalEnergies ($9.1 billion, +127%), Shell ($10.8 billion), BP ($8.6 billion), and Chevron ($9.9 billion). ExxonMobil reported a profit of $15.4 billion, noting 100% utilization of refineries on the Gulf Coast. The EU released 42 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilize prices.

Monetary Policy and Inflation

On October 29, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate in the range of 3.75–4.00%, but the decision was not unanimous: 10 out of 12 members voted to hold, while Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a hike to 4–4.25%. The probability of a December rate hike is assessed by markets at 78%. US GDP grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding forecasts, while PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in September.

The Bank of Japan held its rate at 1.25% on October 30 but more than doubled the pace of its exchange-traded fund (ETF) sales, shortening the portfolio runoff period from 112 to 43 years. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that core inflation is in line with the 2% target but has not been sustainably achieved. The Bank of Canada raised its rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5% on October 28, the first time since July 2023, and raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 3.1%. The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate to 5.5% on October 26 and shifted its rhetoric to "calibrated tightening," reducing excess liquidity in the banking system from 11 trillion to 462 billion rupees.

Rare Earth Metals and Supply Chains

Domestic production of rare earth permanent magnets in the US in 2025 was approximately 300 tons against consumption of 48,000 tons. The Pentagon's deadline for restricting the use of Chinese rare earth materials in weapons systems is January 1, 2027. In October, China expanded its export controls to cover mining, separation, and magnet production technologies, while new State Council rules from September 15 give Beijing the right to ban the departure of specialists in sensitive technologies.

The IEA estimates that a complete phase-out of Chinese supplies could threaten $6.5 trillion in industrial production outside China. Even with the launch of all announced projects, non-Chinese supply chains would meet less than 20% of demand for permanent magnets. The company REalloys appointed a new operations director and plans to launch NdPr production capacity in early 2027. MP Materials raised more than $1 billion, while USA Rare Earth received a state stake worth $1.6 billion.

Geopolitics: Ukraine and the Middle East

On October 29, Russia launched a massive drone attack, destroying 1,214 drones over Russia, while a cruise drone hit a station platform in Dnipro, killing at least 14 people. On October 30, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported attacks on three refineries and one petrochemical complex in Russia, which could lead to a decrease in diesel fuel exports in November. The EU allocated €4.9 billion from the European Peace Fund to reimburse member states' military expenditures.

In the Middle East, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the 40-day war changed the regional balance of power. The US Navy was loading munitions onto the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, including cruise missiles, although the Pentagon stated there was no final decision on strikes. Iran announced a finalized plan for a large-scale response to a potential US attack, including targets in the region. In Serbia, the "Student List" party won the elections, securing 141 of 250 seats, which puts Chinese investments and the sanctions waiver for the NIS refinery in question.

Regulatory Changes in the EU and UK

The UK budget, presented on October 28, raised the bank profits tax from 3% to 6% for 15 months and set a defense spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lowered its growth forecast for next year from 1.6% to 1% and raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 3.4%. On October 30, the government announced that foreign companies receiving defense contracts over £50 million would have to reinvest an equivalent amount in the UK.

The EU and Canada launched the "Alliance of the Future" on October 31, signing a digital trade agreement. Canada received "associated member" status with access to European supercomputers for training AI models and EIB financing for critical minerals. The EU also introduced a permanent fee of €2 for processing parcels from outside the bloc, which is added to the existing €3 tariff to limit the flow of cheap Chinese goods. The European Commission proposed a climate adaptation law requiring preparation for 3 degrees of warming.

Cybersecurity and AI Threats

On October 26, autonomous AI agents hacked more than 100 companies with an estimated damage of $5,000, attacking targets in India, Europe, Japan, and the US. Japan declared a "cyberspace state of emergency" on October 29 following a ransomware attack on a Japanese cloud services subsidiary, which paralyzed the systems of 495 organizations. A Clusit report recorded 4,911 serious cyber incidents in the first half of 2026, a 71% increase from the previous year, with a warning about "agentic hacking."

A zero-day vulnerability in the local version of Microsoft SharePoint remains unpatched for more than five days despite patch attempts. In India, 21 publishers filed a lawsuit in the Supreme Court against the privacy law, arguing that consent and data deletion requirements are equivalent to censorship. In Hong Kong, the government announced reforms following the Tai Po fire, including the implementation of an AI-based contractor verification system by mid-2027 and the criminalization of bid-rigging.

What This Means

If you work in the technology sector or regulated finance, this period was marked by a transition from AI pilot projects to large-scale capitalization with fixed obligations. Significance: Anthropic's disclosure of non-cancellable computing contracts and Meta's negative cash flow signal that the sector is entering a phase of intense competition for capital, where liquidity is more important than short-term profitability. Situational consequence: if your organization depends on external computing power or memory chip supplies, risks of schedule delays and price increases rise due to the shortage SK Hynix forecasts until 2030. What to watch: Anthropic's IPO pricing and any signals of revised capital expenditure forecasts from major hyperscalers; if stock prices fall, it could trigger a reassessment of the entire AI infrastructure sector.

The energy crisis and geopolitics create structural costs. Significance: QatarEnergy's force majeure extension and attacks on Russian refineries confirm that energy security has become a dominant pricing factor, not just a cyclical phenomenon. Situational consequence: if your operating costs are sensitive to gas or diesel prices, winter budgeting must account for volatility above historical norms. What to watch: QatarEnergy's force majeure decision in January and Russian diesel fuel export volumes in November; if supplies do not recover, pressure on inflation in the EU will intensify.

The regulatory environment is tightening regarding defense supplies and cybersecurity. Significance: UK offset requirements and China's expansion of export controls close "gray zones" in critical technology supply chains. Situational consequence: if you participate in defense or technology supplies to the EU or UK, compliance checks on counterparties and raw material sources become critical. What to watch: the Pentagon's January 1, 2027 deadline for rare earth metals and any new EU cybersecurity directives; if the deadline is not met, it could lead to component shortages and production delays.

What Remained in the Shadows

Despite loud headlines about AI and energy, several lines are forming the long-term backdrop. First, the partial return of PC production from Thailand and Vietnam to China (HP, Asus) shows that economic factors (memory shortage) outweigh the "China+1" geopolitical strategy. Second, the drop in market share of Chinese smartphone brands in India to 68% and the rise of Indian brands to 7% signal a structural shift in the consumer market driven by rising component prices. Third, India's record 64.9% export growth in September, fueled by AI investments, contrasts with an 81% drop in gold imports, indicating a redistribution of capital within the country. Fourth, the Bank of Japan's announcement that inflation is "in line" with the 2% target while simultaneously accelerating ETF sales is a subtle signal of a shift toward tightening without a formal rate hike, which affects global capital flows and currency hedging.

Our read

The period demonstrates a mixed signal on the escalation axis: geopolitical tensions persist (attacks on refineries, LNG force majeure extension, preparation for strikes on Iran), but diplomatic channels are not closed (negotiations in the UAE, EU-Canada alliance). On the financial conditions axis, tightening is observed: the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada signal rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan is shrinking its balance sheet, increasing the cost of capital. Systemic stress is growing in energy and rare earth metal supply chains, where shortages are becoming structural rather than temporary. The counter-argument is record profitability for oil companies and US GDP growth, indicating the global economy's resilience to shocks. An indicator of a reversal would be the restoration of LNG supplies from Qatar in January or a softening of Federal Reserve rhetoric at the December meeting. The overall signal is mixed: the technology sector is overheated and vulnerable to correction, the energy market is in a state of crisis, and geopolitical risks remain high but manageable.

This analysis was produced automatically by a large-language-model system from the public sources listed below. It is AI-generated content: it reflects the sources and the model's processing, not an editorial opinion, and may contain inaccuracies. It is not investment, financial or legal advice and contains no call to action; base decisions on the original sources and on advice from qualified professionals.

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