Daily · US Midterms and Global Energy Crisis · November 3, 2026

Key points

US Midterms: Political Shifts and Market Implications

Americans voted on November 3, 2026, in midterm elections that could reshape the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats were contested, along with governorships in 36 states. More than 57 million Americans cast early ballots, a record high, with turnout surging in key battlegrounds like South Carolina (up 80% from 2022) and Texas (up 50%).

Polls suggest Democrats are favored to retake the House, where they need a net gain of three seats, while the Senate remains a toss-up requiring a four-seat gain. Prediction markets like Polymarket showed odds of a Democratic sweep at 72%. Trump's approval rating stood at 32%, near career lows, driven by voter concerns over the cost of living and the war with Iran. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 78% of voters cited the rising cost of living as their top issue.

The outcome has direct implications for technology and finance. A Democratic-controlled House would likely launch investigations into crypto companies tied to the Trump family and increase scrutiny of AI data centers. Analysts note that while a Democratic majority may pressure data-storage names, the AI trade is unlikely to collapse entirely given the difficulty of overriding presidential vetoes. Conversely, a Republican hold on the Senate could maintain the current legislative trajectory.

Key battlegrounds include Michigan, where former Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, causing a split in the Democratic base. In Texas, polls showed Democrat James Talarico level with Republican Ken Paxton, a race that could determine Senate control. The election also highlighted growing opposition to AI data centers, with voters in at least 10 states considering ballot measures imposing restrictions or pauses on development.

Iran Conflict: Strikes, Peace Talks, and Oil Volatility

The US military carried out limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island on November 2, described by officials as 'defensive' actions to protect assets in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes followed reports that Iranian forces had targeted a US aircraft. This action occurred just hours before the US midterm elections, with President Trump stating that a deal with Tehran 'could happen' and that he did not intend to resume major military operations immediately.

Oil prices reacted sharply to shifting diplomatic signals. Brent crude fell 7.6% on Monday, November 2, following reports of Qatar-mediated peace talks and statements from Vice President JD Vance suggesting progress in negotiations. However, prices rebounded on Tuesday after the Qeshm strike was reported, with Brent trading at $105.26 per barrel. The volatility reflects the market's sensitivity to the status of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of global oil trade passes.

Diplomatic efforts continue in parallel. US special envoy Steve Witkoff announced trilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi, while Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran to discuss a draft US-Iran deal. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that consultations are proceeding intensively, but Tehran insists on the lifting of the US naval blockade as a precondition for reopening the strait.

The conflict has significant economic repercussions. Diesel prices in the US hit a record $6.52 per gallon in September, up from $3.75 before the war began. The IEA warns that global LNG supply will fall 3% in 2026, the steepest decline on record, due to disruptions in Gulf exports. Rystad Energy estimates that crude oil exports from Persian Gulf producers have averaged only 12 million barrels per day, down from a pre-war level of 18 million.

Binance Hack: North Korean Attribution and Cyber Risks

The FBI announced on November 1 that the North Korean state-sponsored unit TraderTraitor was responsible for the theft of $6.34 billion in crypto assets from Binance, the largest cryptocurrency heist in history. The attack, which occurred on October 29, involved hackers using fake job interviews, a tampered Homebrew installation, and compromised internal AI tools to infiltrate wallet infrastructure over several months.

Binance co-CEO Richard Teng confirmed that the company has replenished 98% of the stolen assets using its own reserves. Industry partners including Tether, Circle, and Ripple have frozen approximately $3 billion in assets, but laundering continues through decentralized exchanges and cross-chain bridges. Elliptic reported that hackers used roughly 12,000 wallets across 11 blockchains in the first four days, with an average of one new wallet created every 25 seconds.

North Korea denied involvement, with Kim Yo-jong, sister of leader Kim Jong Un, calling the FBI's accusation 'absurd rhetoric' and a 'grave political provocation.' This marked her first public statement on a cyber incident, signaling the seriousness with which Pyongyang views the allegation. The US State Department stated that cryptocurrency heists have become a significant part of North Korea's strategy to circumvent sanctions and fund weapons programs.

The incident has heightened cybersecurity concerns globally. In Switzerland, the Federal Office for Cybersecurity (Bacs) reported 18 cyberattacks on fintech and Web3 employees in 2026, linked to similar social engineering tactics. Chainalysis estimates that 89% of crypto hack losses in 2026 were linked to North Korea, up from 15% in 2021.

Energy Crisis: Gas Shortages and Inflation Pressures

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the global gas market could remain tight well into 2027. EU gas storage facilities were only 75% full at the end of October, below the mandatory 80% threshold and the lowest level in 13 years. Germany, the EU's largest gas consumer, missed its target with storage at 61%, prompting industry body INES to call for a legal storage obligation.

The shortage is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE. LNG loadings from these countries fell by more than 60 billion cubic meters between March and October 2026. The IEA forecasts that global gas demand will drop by 1.5% in 2026 as high prices stimulate a shift to coal in Asian markets.

Inflationary pressures are evident across regions. In Switzerland, CPI rose to 1.5% in October, driven primarily by an 81.4% year-on-year increase in heating oil prices. In South Korea, consumer prices rose 2.8%, with petroleum products advancing 14.9%. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85%, citing AI-related investment and fuel costs as drivers of elevated inflation.

Corporate responses are emerging. Saudi Aramco reported adjusted net income of $31.2 billion for Q3 2026, beating expectations, as higher crude prices offset the impact of Houthi attacks on infrastructure. The company is exploring alternative export routes to strengthen its supply network. Meanwhile, Japan plans to tap $7 billion from a government fund to subsidize gasoline prices, acknowledging the fiscal strain of energy costs.

Tech and Finance: Earnings, Mergers, and Regulatory Moves

Apple reported record revenue for its July-September quarter, with iPhone sales rising 17% to $57 billion. However, CEO John Ternus warned of 'unprecedented' cost increases for memory chips driven by AI data center demand, leading to a forecast gross margin of 45-46%, below analyst estimates. The company raised prices on most hardware products by around 20% in response.

In the semiconductor sector, Intel's stock plunged 29% after the company warned that quarterly revenue would be $1-2 billion below estimates due to high memory costs and a shift in capacity from advanced 18A chips to data center-focused Intel 3 products. The move undermines its foundry credibility as it seeks marquee customers for its most advanced technology.

Marvell Technology agreed to acquire Lumentum Holdings in an all-stock deal worth $115 billion, valuing Lumentum at $1,132 per share. The merger aims to combine Marvell's digital signal processors with Lumentum's laser technology for AI infrastructure. Regulatory approval is expected to extend the deal's close into the first half of 2028.

Regulatory developments include the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approving equity perpetual futures contracts for trading on regulated US exchanges for the first time. Additionally, the US Supreme Court denied a Justice Department request to block California from counting mail-in ballots from 20,000 voters suspected of being non-citizens, preserving the integrity of the vote in a key tech state.

Our read

The convergence of US midterm elections and the Iran conflict creates a high-risk environment for technology and finance decision-makers. A likely Democratic House flip suggests increased scrutiny on AI data centers and crypto assets tied to political figures, which may accelerate compliance requirements for firms operating in these sectors. Simultaneously, the persistent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is driving structural changes in energy supply chains, with gas shortages in Europe and rising costs globally impacting operational budgets. The attribution of the Binance hack to North Korea signals that state-sponsored cyber threats are becoming a primary risk factor for digital asset custody, necessitating immediate review of third-party vendor security and recruitment processes. Companies should monitor legislative developments on AI regulation and energy policy closely, as these will directly affect capital expenditure plans and supply chain resilience in the coming year.

This analysis was produced automatically by a large-language-model system from the public sources listed below. It is AI-generated content: it reflects the sources and the model's processing, not an editorial opinion, and may contain inaccuracies. It is not investment, financial or legal advice and contains no call to action; base decisions on the original sources and on advice from qualified professionals.

Sources