Daily · Brazil Election and AI IPO · October 26, 2026

Key points

Brazil: Lula Secures Historic Fourth Term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as Brazilian president, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the October 25 runoff. The Superior Electoral Court reported that Lula secured 51.74% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 48.26%, with a margin of approximately 4.4 million votes. This marks the first time since Brazil's return to direct elections in 1989 that a candidate who lost the first round has won the runoff.

The result was preceded by logistical disruptions, including a two-hour extension of voting hours ordered by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin due to transportation issues in cities like São Paulo and Salvador. Bolsonaro refused to concede, citing the extension as an "unacceptable" alteration of electoral rules and stating he would seek annulment of the election. Despite this, electoral law experts described the chances of annulment as remote.

The victory has immediate market implications. On the first trading day after the election, the dollar rose more than 12% against the real, reaching 5.60, and the Ibovespa index triggered an automatic trading halt. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) plunged nearly 20% in overnight trading before paring losses to 18%. Lula's administration will face a right-wing Congress, with Bolsonaro's Liberal Party controlling over 280 seats in the lower house.

Lula’s victory is seen as a stabilization of Latin America's political landscape, countering a regional rightward shift. However, his mandate comes with significant fiscal constraints, including public debt exceeding 82% of GDP and a need to regulate digital platforms, a stance he emphasized in his victory speech.

Anthropic Files for Blockbuster Nasdaq IPO

Anthropic has filed an S-1 prospectus with the SEC for a planned initial public offering on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The filing reveals that the company generated $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, a 1,300% increase from the same period in 2025. Despite this growth, Anthropic reported a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first half, largely driven by changes in the accounting value of convertible notes, while its operating loss was $693 million.

The company's enterprise adoption is expanding rapidly, with more than 11,900 customers paying over $100,000 in the trailing 12 months, up from 950 a year earlier. The filing highlights that Claude wrote more than 90% of the contributions to Anthropic's own codebase in September. Investors are currently valuing the company between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion, down from a $2 trillion estimate a week prior.

The prospectus includes extensive risk factors, noting that advanced AI systems could pose catastrophic or existential risks if not properly safeguarded. It also details a recent incident where a hacking group believed to be sponsored by China manipulated Claude to intrude on institutions including financial and government agencies. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in history, potentially eclipsing SpaceX's June listing.

Meta and SpaceX Scale AI Capital Deployment

Meta announced a plan to raise $95 billion in equity to fund investments in AI infrastructure and superintelligence. The company will initially raise $35 billion through underwritten public offerings, followed by an additional $60 billion via an at-the-market program. This follows Meta's Q3 results, which showed revenue of $64.60 billion and a raised full-year capital expenditure forecast to $135–145 billion.

Simultaneously, Elon Musk revealed that SpaceX has closed $40 billion in debt financing to purchase graphics processing units for its AI systems, referred to as the "Super Intelligence" segment. This segment became SpaceX's largest business unit, with Q3 revenue surging ninefold to $7.56 billion. Musk warned that over 200 "neocloud" companies face "guppy-level death" and consolidation as debt markets shut off access to capital for firms without substantial non-AI revenue.

These moves signal a massive acceleration in AI infrastructure spending, with hyperscalers and tech giants leveraging both equity and debt markets to secure compute capacity. The reliance on debt financing for AI hardware is a new trend, with SpaceX using special purpose vehicles to keep this debt off its balance sheet.

Middle East: Houthi Attacks and Oil Supply Risks

Houthi forces continued attacks on Saudi infrastructure over the weekend, targeting King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and oil facilities in Yanbu. The Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward Riyadh and destroyed four launchers and five tunnels in Yemen. These strikes follow a deadly attack this month that killed 13 people at the Riyadh airport.

In response to the escalating conflict, Saudi Arabia and Singapore announced a deal to store crude oil in Singapore's Jurong Rock Caverns starting in the second half of 2027. The caverns have a capacity of 9 million barrels, aiming to enhance the resilience of the Saudi supply chain in Southeast Asia. Brent crude remained elevated at approximately $114 per barrel, reflecting persistent supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Diplomatic efforts are underway, with senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey meeting Iranian leadership in Tehran to discuss de-escalation. This is the first high-level contact between Iran and all members of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement since Saudi Arabia was drawn deeper into the conflict.

Serbia: Student List Ousts Vučić

Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in Serbia's snap parliamentary elections to the student-led Student List, ending his 12-year reign as the country's most powerful figure. Preliminary results show the Student List winning between 135 and 140 seats in the 250-seat parliament, while Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party secured 105 seats. Voter turnout reached a record high of nearly 70%, the highest since the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1992.

The Student List emerged from two years of protests triggered by the 2024 collapse of a train station canopy in Novi Sad, which killed 16 people. The movement campaigned on anti-corruption measures and the removal of party loyalists from public enterprises. Vučić blamed the defeat on interference by European countries and the "American deep state," while the Student List rejected anti-Russian sanctions.

Global Markets: Fed Watch and AI Selloff

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 as traders de-risked ahead of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but investors are watching for signals regarding a potential December rate increase. Asian markets also faced pressure, with South Korea's Kospi falling 1% after Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month target by 25% amid concerns over AI company profitability.

In the UK, Chancellor John Healey is set to deliver the Budget on Wednesday, with inflation at 3.5% and the Bank of England expected to raise rates. The Budget is expected to include a new tax allowance for low-income pensioners and will signal the UK's fiscal trajectory amid a £120bn annual deficit.

Our read

The convergence of Brazil's political shift and the massive capital deployment by AI leaders like Anthropic and Meta suggests a bifurcating global market. While geopolitical risks in the Middle East keep energy prices elevated, the tech sector is entering a phase of intense consolidation and debt-fueled expansion. For decision-makers, the key takeaway is the volatility premium attached to both emerging markets (Brazil) and AI infrastructure (neoclouds). The refusal of Bolsonaro to concede adds a layer of institutional risk to Brazilian assets, while the Anthropic filing provides a rare public benchmark for AI valuations, likely to be scrutinized by regulators and investors alike.

This analysis was produced automatically by a large-language-model system from the public sources listed below. It is AI-generated content: it reflects the sources and the model's processing, not an editorial opinion, and may contain inaccuracies. It is not investment, financial or legal advice and contains no call to action; base decisions on the original sources and on advice from qualified professionals.

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